European Investor
25 May 2026, 12:32
Brent Slides Below $100 While Gold Climbs as Iran Peace Deal Comes Into Focus
Two of the most closely watched commodity markets in 2026 are moving in sharply different directions today, with Brent crude falling more than 5% to around $97 per barrel and gold rising over 1% to approximately $4,555 per ounce — a divergence that captures a pivotal moment in the three-month-old Iran conflict.
The catalyst is the most significant diplomatic development since the war began on February 28. Trump stated over the weekend that Washington and Iran had largely negotiated a memorandum of understanding on a peace deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which carried a fifth of global shipments of oil and liquefied natural gas before the conflict. The announcement sent oil prices tumbling, with Brent crude touching its lowest level since May 7, with both Brent and WTI contracts down more than 5%.
The move in oil reflects enormous pent-up supply expectations. Markets are expecting a gush of 100 million barrels of crude oil from stranded ships to flow out once a deal is finalized, even as analysts note that fundamentally there is no change to the underlying picture, where 10 to 11 million barrels per day of crude oil continue to be shut in for every day the Strait of Hormuz remains shut. Early signs of movement are already visible — two liquefied natural gas tankers were exiting the Strait on Monday heading to Pakistan and China, while a supertanker with Iraqi crude left the Gulf for China after being stranded for nearly three months.
Gold's reaction is the more nuanced story of the day. Bullion rose to around $4,555 an ounce, erasing a moderate loss from last week, as signs the US and Iran are closing in on a deal tempered inflation concerns. The logic is straightforward — lower oil prices mean lower inflation, lower inflation means the Fed's increasingly hawkish posture becomes less necessary, and a less hawkish Fed reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold. A weaker dollar, making greenback-priced bullion more affordable for holders of other currencies, added to the upward pressure.
Today's session is also operating under Memorial Day conditions, with US equity and bond markets closed, meaning thinner liquidity is amplifying the moves in both directions.
Caution remains warranted. Trump has simultaneously said he will not rush into any agreement, and the two sides remain at odds over several difficult issues. Brent futures for July stood at around $97 to $99 a barrel, still up by more than a third compared with before the start of the war, a reminder that even with peace hopes elevated, the market is pricing in significant residual risk rather than a full normalization. Any breakdown in negotiations over the remaining sticking points could reverse today's moves as quickly as they appeared.
Two of the most closely watched commodity markets in 2026 are moving in sharply different directions today, with Brent crude falling more than 5% to around $97 per barrel and gold rising over 1% to approximately $4,555 per ounce — a divergence that captures a pivotal moment in the three-month-old Iran conflict.
The catalyst is the most significant diplomatic development since the war began on February 28. Trump stated over the weekend that Washington and Iran had largely negotiated a memorandum of understanding on a peace deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which carried a fifth of global shipments of oil and liquefied natural gas before the conflict. The announcement sent oil prices tumbling, with Brent crude touching its lowest level since May 7, with both Brent and WTI contracts down more than 5%.
The move in oil reflects enormous pent-up supply expectations. Markets are expecting a gush of 100 million barrels of crude oil from stranded ships to flow out once a deal is finalized, even as analysts note that fundamentally there is no change to the underlying picture, where 10 to 11 million barrels per day of crude oil continue to be shut in for every day the Strait of Hormuz remains shut. Early signs of movement are already visible — two liquefied natural gas tankers were exiting the Strait on Monday heading to Pakistan and China, while a supertanker with Iraqi crude left the Gulf for China after being stranded for nearly three months.
Gold's reaction is the more nuanced story of the day. Bullion rose to around $4,555 an ounce, erasing a moderate loss from last week, as signs the US and Iran are closing in on a deal tempered inflation concerns. The logic is straightforward — lower oil prices mean lower inflation, lower inflation means the Fed's increasingly hawkish posture becomes less necessary, and a less hawkish Fed reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold. A weaker dollar, making greenback-priced bullion more affordable for holders of other currencies, added to the upward pressure.
Today's session is also operating under Memorial Day conditions, with US equity and bond markets closed, meaning thinner liquidity is amplifying the moves in both directions.
Caution remains warranted. Trump has simultaneously said he will not rush into any agreement, and the two sides remain at odds over several difficult issues. Brent futures for July stood at around $97 to $99 a barrel, still up by more than a third compared with before the start of the war, a reminder that even with peace hopes elevated, the market is pricing in significant residual risk rather than a full normalization. Any breakdown in negotiations over the remaining sticking points could reverse today's moves as quickly as they appeared.